Noida has been in the news for all the wrong reasons these days. After Nithari its the time for Jal Vayu Vihar (incidentally, Jal Vayu Vihar is in the vicinity of Nithari!) The murder of 14 year old Arushi Talwar, and Yam Prasad Banjade ( alias Hemraj) has rocked the nation. 'National' media seems to have gone into a frenzy. There is no doubt that this double murder is a crime of the most heinous nature, but its high time to analyse the frenzy that it has created.
This double murder has held the attention of the 'entire' nation thanks to vigilant reporting by 24X7 news channels and the multitude of newspapers. But the point in case is, why has this murder case been given so much attention? The answer probably lies in the economics of news dispersion.
The rise of the news industry is intricately linked to the astonishing growth story of the bourgeoisie in India. India's growth story has been fueled by the rise in consumption, and the middle class plays a significant role in that. On the other hand, the burgeoning news industry runs on ad-spot revenues. And yes, it is the middle class that buys the products advertised on television/papers. Thus, the middle class is, inevitably, the target audience of the News/Media Industry.
So where does the Noida double murder case fit into this jigsaw?
The murders have been in the spotlight because it features a family that is so typically 'middle class'. The murdered girl is one of 'our' kin. She could have 'our' own sister, daughter, friend. And this is why emotions get whipped, and the 'entire' nation (its a different matter that this 'entire' nation is only 35 crore strong)identifies with the victim and the victimised.
Murders have been rampant in the Hindi Heartland. The villages of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madyha Pradesh witness,at least, one murder every single day. But why is the 'nation' unaware about them? Because the victim, 8 out of 10 times, is from the backward classes...is a Dalit...
'(S)he is not one of us'
And if the victim is not one of our kin it does not make economic sense for our mercenary media to devote precious airtime/newsprint to the crime. Because, they would not find viewers for such news, and without high TRPs/TAMs, Corporate India won't pay Crores for a 10 second spot on television or an inch in print.
This is not an attempt to vilify the media, or to reduce the significance of the crime committed in Noida. Rather its a reflection on the workings of an industry that claims high moral ground and proclaims to be the lone warrior against the evils of the society.
Oil's on the boil. Yes, this phrase is making headlines across channels over the past few months. Sometime back, it broke through the 100 Dollar mark and is all set to breach 150 Dollars in the near future (considering the rapid rise in Crude price in the month of May). Even the government is now considering a raise in the petrol and diesel prices to offset some of the losses that the Oil Marketing Companies are suffering.
Even if the rising price of Crude seems to be a gospel truth, it hides more than it reveals. A price rise, by simple economics, is the result of increased demand and the inability of supply to keep abreast. However, in the case of crude, it is not that simple.
All newspapers and channels keep on harping about Crude breaching important levels, but few tell you that the price being quoted, is the price at which the 'precious' commodity is being traded on the bourses, specifically, the NYMEX. Essentially, it's the price at which Crude 'Futures' are being traded. Although my more informed peers might argue, future trading, is nothing but gambling for the intelligent. It's basically quoting a price at which the particular commodity would trade in the future, and the inherent speculative nature of the transaction leads to a situation of artificial price rise. My informed peers would argue that there is no conclusive fact to support this theory, but a look at the mechanism (with some amount of common sense) would clearly reveal that the picture is a lot more murky.
The price rise in Crude, even according to my 'informed' peers and 'experts', has been most unnatural. Although there is no denying this fact that we are rapidly running out of this precious commodity, nothing in the recent past suggests that such a sudden rise is justified. Infact, International Energy Agency report suggests that in the world's largest market for oil, the demand has actually decreased. The USA is the largest consumer of Oil and oil products in the world, but due to an impending recession the demand has actually reduced. Infact, IEA has even revised its target for consumption of Oil in the USA. (Just to give an idea about the 'largeness' of this number- USA consumes more oil, than India and China combined) . The other oft stated reason for the rise in prices is the increased demand in China and India. Well, to be honest, the demand has increased and has increased significantly, but this is no surprise. Infact, the growth in demand has been in accordance to IEA estimates.
If the demand side story seems a bit surprising, the supply side tale is even more interesting. Oil production has 'increased' by a considerable amount and most of the oil wells are producing at peak capacity ( According to IEAs report current Oil Wells across the world are supposed to have peaked around 2006 and would continue to show peak production for a few years before the figures start to show a decline). OPEC is at peak production, and except for the Eurozone countries the rest of the world is producing more oil now than they ever did! (Just for the record...Eurozone's oil production is almost negligible)
So, is there any justification for Crude's northward trip? Is NYMEX the benchmark? Is future trading the right mechanism for price discovery? Probably not...probably yes. Probably this is the Crude Reality staring us in our face!
Yes! It's been a year. Now that is an achievement of some sorts! For a person who thought he wouldn't last for more than six months in this organisation, he has actually spent a year. And this year has been, to use a chiche, (Oh! I am so fond of cliches!), a 'steep learning curve'!
Yes, it has been a learning curve, albeit a bit different.
Working in a business channel, over the past 365 days I have come into contact with the stock markets almost every single day. Stock Markets are also known as Capital Markets which itself is an interesting name. Apart from the financial connotations of the word Capital, it also denotes a sense of being 'primary', and that states a lot about our stock markets. Yes, they have become the Primary mode of transaction in our country. And with the hullabaloo over the Sensex, this epithet is not unjustified. Every move the Sensex makes, is being followed by hundreds of devotees. So much so that it has spurned atleast 4 exclusive media channels, and this is not taking into account the hourly market updates on numerous general news channels, or the multitude of newspapers. It is this phenomenon that has caught my attention. Call it the Stock syndrome, or anything else ,this is the subject of my interest. This is my learning curve, or should I say a learning hole.
What is the basis of this obsession? Why does the rise and fall of a curve the reason of such emotional responses? Why do news channels go ballistic when the Sensex touches the 21,000 mark, and why do they go into a condolence mode when it crashes a thousand points?
Are there any answers? I doubt there are, but I can offer an explanation. Inspite of waht my learned colleagues might claim, 'trading' is no better than organised betting. Companies worth a crore have been valued at 40 times their asset by the Market. It is mere speculation that drives share prices northwards. And speculation is an integral part of our 'Capital Markets'. The channels with their numerous gurus make their living speculating.
Isn't speculation also a part of betting? How is quoting a target price for a particular stock different from betting on a number for huge returns? It is this inherent characteristic that drives investors crazy and the cause for such emotional outbursts?
And this is what spurns me.
Ever since its inception only 65 lakh 'investors' have ever made a transaction. That number might look big, but in comparison to our 100 crore plus population, it is a measly 0.065%! And we have four dedicated television channels catering to this minuscule number. If you don't find this ridiculous, then there is some cause for concern.
The impassioned response against Capital Gains tax and Commodities transaction tax is/was ludicrous. The CTT intends to propose a tax of Rs. 17 on transactions worth One lakh...Yes, One lakh! The arguments against the imposition state a decline in turnover, and a loss of trade!Is a person making transaction worth a lakh of rupees incapable of paying Rs.17 as tax?
The answer what our channels and their viewers would like to hear is- NO
And this has been my learning hole!
And into this hole I come everyday, praying that old adages come true, and there is indeed some light at the end of the tunnel.
